Predicting the 72nd
Oscars
by
Ian Waldron-Mantgani, March 24, 2000
The Academy Awards, Hollywood's annual night of
overt self-congratulation, will be broadcast on television around the world
on Sunday night. Here in the UK, you can see them on Sky Premier at 2:00am,
after an introductory show presented by Barry Norman. My
predictions:
BEST PICTURE
Picking the winner here is a tricky task. "American Beauty", which many are
calling the front-runner, is a haunting and confusing film which attacks
American suburbia; it's rare that conservative Academy members hand prizes
to such fare. "The Cider House Rules" is receiving strong buzz because its
distributor, Miramax, campaigns hard for Oscar glory; but the film was a
surprise nominee and has many detractors. "The Sixth Sense" is a box-office
and critical success, but hasn't won a lot of precursor awards. The only
nominees we can count out of the race are "The Insider", which won't be an
industry favourite due to its poor box-office, and "The Green Mile", which
was too esoteric for most Hollywood phoneys to understand.
Four years ago I correctly expected the crowd-pleasing
"Braveheart" to beat "Babe" and "Sense & Sensibility" - but I don't have
as big a gut feeling about "The Sixth Sense". Perhaps I'm biased because
I didn't like it. "Cider House" is the best film in the running, and has
publicity in its favour. "Beauty" has the most precursor trophies. All three
films seem to have equal chances, as far as I can tell. I guess I'll go with
the flow and predict "Beauty".
DIRECTOR
Sam Mendes for "American Beauty", after winning a Golden Globe, a multitude
of critics' awards and the Directors Guild of America plaque, which is an
almost infallible omen for Oscar. If he can be toppled, expect M. Night Shyamalan
to collect the gong, for making himself famous in Tinseltown and doing good
business with "Sixth Sense".
ACTOR
"Beauty" again. Kevin Spacey won the Screen Actors Guild prize, which virtually
guarantees him the Oscar. My second choice would be Denzel Washinton, who
played Rubin Carter, the middleweight boxer famously framed for murder, in
"The Hurricane".
ACTRESS
Annette Bening may win for her disturbingly over-the-top, darkly comedic
performance in "American Beauty" - she's an Oscarless Hollywood veteran,
married to Warren Beatty, who took home an SAG award. The one girl who could
usurp her is Hilary Swank, whose portrayal of a cross-dressing teen in the
tragic romance "Boys Don't Cry" earned a lot of media attention. She'll be
hindered by the fact she's a newcomer in a little-seen film, and those who
do know her career will not have forgotten that she starred in "Karate Kid
4".
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Each nominee has been front-runner at some point. Take your pick from Michael
Caine ("Cider House"), Tom Cruise ("Magnolia"), Michael Clarke Duncan ("The
Green Mile"), Jude Law ("Talented Mr. Ripley") and Haley Joel Osment ("The
Sixth Sense"). As much as I'd like to see Tom Cruise get prestigious recognition
for a great performance, Caine won the SAG citation, which gives him the
edge.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
An alarmingly weak list, which even includes Toni Collette, who gave one
of the year's worst performances in "Sixth Sense". Most pundits think
Angelina Jolie will win this, and I suppose I'm going to have to agree. She
doesn't seem a likely candidate for an Oscar, but none of the nominees do,
and there are some factors in her favour - she's Jon Voight's daughter, for
example, and the press have been in love with her over the past year. Also
- Jolie is another SAG winner... but can all four SAG winners triumph at
the Oscars? We shall see.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
If Academy members look at the top of their ballots and decide to jump on
the "American Beauty" bandwagon, then they will also look a little lower
down, remember how they enjoyed the construction of "Sixth Sense" and vote
for its screenplay. If not, "Beauty" clinches it, and if the vote is split,
it would be delightful to see Charlie Kaufman pick up an accolade for the
dazzlingly inventive "Being John Malkovich".
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"The Cider House Rules". John Irving has a large fan base, which is impressed
that he adapted his 800-page novel to the screen. It took him 15 years, and
he wrote another book about it, and "Cider House" has got to win SOME awards,
after all.
Other categories:
FOREIGN FILM: "All About My Mother", from Spain
FILM EDITING: "The Matrix"
CINEMATOGRAPHY: "Sleepy Hollow"
ART DIRECTION/SET DECORATION: "Topsy-Turvy"
COSTUME DESIGN: "Topsy-Turvy"
SOUND: "Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace"
SOUND EFFECTS EDITING: "Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace"
VISUAL EFFECTS: "The Matrix"
MAKEUP: "Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me"
ORIGINAL SCORE: "American Beauty"
ORIGINAL SONG: "When She Loved Me", from "Toy Story 2"
Honorary awards, as previously announced, are
to be presented to Warren Beatty and Andrjez Wajda. All other winners will
be announced on the show, which usually runs about four hours, and will presented
by Whoopi Goldberg.
COPYRIGHT© 2000 Ian
Waldron-Mantgani
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