Predicting the 73rd
Oscars
by
Ian Waldron-Mantgani, March 25, 2001
For all their flaws, the Academy Awards are big
news and a hypnotic ritual. I know I'll be staying up all night to watch
them, fascinated as I disapprove. Ah well. Predictions:
BEST PICTURE
"Gladiator". Ridley Scott's Roman epic was over-rated
and had major structural problems, but lots of people loved it, it made a
lot of money, it's the kind of big production Hollywood folks love, it got
twelve nominations and it's been the favourite to win since it opened at
the beginning of last year. If there's a movie that could beat it, that's
"Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon", which has ten nominations and is fresh
in the voters' memories. A victory for the Taiwanese movie would be doubtful,
though - it hasn't as much popular support as "Gladiator" and no foreign
language picture has ever won the top Oscar.
Regarding the other nominees, the one that deserves
to win is "Traffic", Stephen Soderbergh's brilliantly constructed epic about
the problems of the drug war, which is boldly, beautifully made and has had
such an impact in the States that special screenings in Washington may end
up inspiring politicians to reconstruct their policies. "Erin Brockovich",
also by Soderbergh, is well-liked enough to get a nomination but not enough
to win. Lasse Hallstrom's patronisingly shallow parable "Chocolat" is on
the list only because so many voters were taken in by aggressive studio
campaigning - not enough voters, it is universally agreed, for the movie
to win.
BEST DIRECTOR
A tough call. My hunch is Ridley Scott ("Gladiator"),
whose film is the likely Best Picture winner, and who has made some notable
pictures without the reward of a golden statuette. But Ang Lee ("Crouching
Tiger") won the Golden Globe and the Directors' Guild of America awards,
making him a likely candidate too.
Stephen Soderbergh is a double nominee, but neither
of his pictures individually have enough support to win, and so although
he'll get more votes than anyone else, the vote will be split. Stephen Daldry
("Billy Elliot") got a chance, for a not very good British film with few
nominations.
BEST ACTOR
The Screen Actors Guild award went to Benicio
Del Toro for "Traffic", who the Academy have nominated in the Supporting
Actor category. Russell Crowe will probably win here, swept along by the
support for "Gladiator" and hardly hindered by his steadily rising profile.
Tom Hanks is the only actor likely to have a chance at beating him -- he
won the Golden Globe, carried "Cast Away" on his own, and went through great
physical torment for the role. On the other hand, he's already won twice
in the past decade, and the Academy may feel it's time to give an Oscar to
someone else. The other nominees - Javier Bardem ("Before Night Falls"),
Ed Harris ("Pollock") and Geoffrey Rush ("Quills") - are all in films that
haven't been widely seen or generated a lot of buzz.
BEST ACTRESS
Julia Roberts in "Erin Brockovich". No contest.
She's the backbone of a Best Picture nominee, she won the Golden Globe and
the SAG award, she's been nominated three times and she's a well-loved member
of the Hollywood community.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Here is where "Traffic" gets rewarded, with Benicio
Del Toro picking up a prize for his tortured Spanish-language performance
as a Mexico cop who gets himself entangled in frustrating layers of corruption
while trying to do the right thing. There is buzz surrounding Albert Finney,
but if he wins, it will be less for his nominated performance in "Erin
Brockovich", where he didn't have to do much except sit at a desk, grunt
and spit out a dodgy American accent, than for his career as a whole. Willem
Dafoe was brilliant in "Shadow of the Vampire", as was Jeff Bridges in "The
Contender", but neither have as much support as Del Toro or Finney. Joaquin
Phoenix may be a great actor, but he's only on this shortlist thanks to the
"Gladiator" groundswell.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kate Hudson was luminous in "Almost Famous", a
beautiful movie that got less nominations than most people would have liked,
she won the Golden Globe and she's the daughter of an Oscar-winning star
(Goldie Hawn). The Oscar is hers. If she's going to be beaten, it will be
by Julie Walters, who hasn't been nominated for a long time and gave a memorable
performance in a feel-good movie, or by Judi Dench, who won the SAG award.
Frances McDormand wasn't in "Almost Famous" for long enough to topple Hudson,
and not enough voters will have seen "Pollock" to choose Marcia Gay
Harden.
Other predictions:
Foreign language film: "Crouching Tiger, Hidden
Dragon"
Original screenplay: "Almost
Famous"
Adapted screenplay: "Traffic"
Original song: "Things Have Changed", by Bob Dylan,
from "Wonder Boys"
Original score: "Crouching Tiger, Hidden
Dragon"
Cinematography: "Gladiator"
Film editing: "Gladiator"
Art direction: "Gladiator"
Costume design: "Quills"
Makeup: "The Grinch"
Sound: "Gladiator"
Sound effects editing: "U-571"
Visual effects: "Gladiator"
The Oscars will be broadcast from 2am on Monday
morning on Sky Premier. I have coffee.
COPYRIGHT© 2001 Ian
Waldron-Mantgani
Commentary
Index
UK
Critic main page
|
![[Image]](http://www.ukcritic.com/posbanr2.gif)