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Predicting the 74th Oscar Nominations

by Ian Waldron-Mantgani, February 10, 2002

 

The nominations for the 74th Academy Awards will be announced on Tuesday afternoon by Marcia Gay Harden, who won the prize for Best Supporting Actress at last year's ceremony. The film for which she won, "Pollock", has still not opened in the UK, but hey, that's a rant for another time.

Universally expected to feature in the Best Picture category are "Moulin Rouge!", the flamboyant Baz Luhrmann musical that became Oscar favourite as soon as it opened; "A Beautiful Mind", based on Sylvia Nasar's book about schizophrenic mathematical genius John Nash; and "Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Rings", the Peter Jackson adaptation of the classic Tolkien novel.

The above three movies have been mentioned in almost every set of award nominations this season, including the Golden Globes and BAFTAS. It's harder to predict what will feature in the two other spots; "Gosford Park" and "Shrek" have been doing pretty well in the precursors, but the former is directed by Robert Altman, who has gone without a Best Picture nomination for sixteen years, and the latter is a cartoon -- a type of film that this year has its very own category, Best Animated Feature.

If either "Gosford Park" or "Shrek" are not nominated for Best Picture, then expect to see Todd Field's critical smash "In the Bedroom" on the list, or even "Memento", the cleverly confusing thriller by Christopher Nolan that had a scattered release across the UK in the year 2000 and went on to do great business as a video release. "Amelie" was considered to have a lock on a nomination a few months ago, but buzz seems to have faded. Longshots include "Black Hawk Down", "Bridget Jones's Diary" and "Harry Potter", which deserves a nomination but may be overshadowed by "Lord of the Rings".

In the Best Actor category, we will probably see Russell Crowe receive a nomination for "A Beautiful Mind", Denzel Washington for "Training Day", Tom Wilkinson for "Iris" (or "In the Bedroom") and Gene Hackman for his performance in the oddball comedy "The Royal Tennenbaums". Others in with a chance include Billy Bob Thornton in "The Man Who Wasn't There", Guy Pearce in "Memento", Ewan McGregor in "Moulin Rouge!", or maybe even Sean Penn in "I Am Sam" or Will Smith in "Ali".

Sissy Spacek will feature in the Best Actress category for "In the Bedroom", joined by Nicole Kidman in "Moulin Rouge!". There's also buzz around Halle Berry in the independent drama "Monster's Ball", and hopefully voters will remember Renee Zellweger's wonderful work in "Bridget Jones's Diary". Also in with a shout are Judi Dench in "Iris" and Naomi Watts in "Mulholland Drive". Nicole Kidman might get a second nomination for "The Others", but I doubt she will and hope she doesn't. Buzz around Tilda Swinton in "The Deep End" has faded, and she failed to be nominated by either the Screen Actors Guild or Golden Globes.

One quick note about the Supporting Actress race -- I'm perturbed by the lack of talk about Scarlett Johansson in "Ghost World", who exuded star quality without drawing attention to herself and gave the best performance of last year.... and yet I'm comforted by the knowledge that goddess Jennifer Connelly will be nominated for "A Beautiful Mind".

The nominations will be announced at 5.30am Pacific on the 12th February, which translates as 1.30pm our time.

COPYRIGHT© 2002 Ian Waldron-Mantgani

  

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