Predicting the 74th
Oscars
by
Ian Waldron-Mantgani, March 20, 2002
I suppose we should be excited that this year's
Oscar race is unpredictable. But I'm narked. I'm narked because I like to
make grand predictions and look wise when they pay off, and this year that
is impossible. Almost every category is a two or three horse race, if not
open completely, and even as I type this I'm unsure of my expectations. I'm
less predicting than randomly guessing; the best prediction I can make is
that my predictions will be wrong.
BEST PICTURE
We can be fairly confident that the best movie
nominated, "In the Bedroom", does not have a chance. "Gosford Park" is also
a longshot - although the Academy is largely comprised of actors, and they'll
admire the ensemble cast, this picture has as many detractors as admirers,
and nomination is its reward.
That leaves "Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship
of the Ring", "A Beautiful Mind" and "Moulin Rouge". Which to pick? Three
years ago I went with my head instead of my gut to predict "Saving Private
Ryan" over "Shakespeare in Love", and I learned my lesson. This time both
my head and my gut are leaning towards "A Beautiful Mind" -- the bestselling
source material made people excited about its release, the film was successful
and well-liked, it's the kind of inspirational story the Academy loves, and
it had the most talked about publicity campaign.
But wait. There are gremlins in my head and gut
telling me to consider alternative possibilities. "Lord of the Rings" was
enormously successful, a boldly epic project, it has the most nominations,
it won the BAFTA, and film geeks are out in force for it. "Moulin Rouge"
has been the favourite since it opened, mixed art and commerce every bit
as successfully as the other nominees, is the kind of throwback to musicals
of yesteryear that older voters will respect.
I dunno. "Lord of the Rings" will be hindered
by the fact that the Academy isn't passionate about fantasy pictures. "Moulin
Rouge" isn't nominated for writing or directing. "A Beautiful Mind" doesn't
have the sweep of a Best Picture winner, but maybe I'm the only one who thinks
that.
I'm gonna gamble. If "A Beautiful Mind" wins and
I didn't predict it, I can deal with that, but if a bizarre Australian musical
takes the prize, I'd love to be there to say I told you so. And it could
happen. People love it. Their eyes light up when they talk about it, and
their voices get insistent.
My prediction: "Moulin
Rouge"
DIRECTING
Recklessly defying my gut once again, I'm going
to resist predicting a win for BAFTA winner Peter Jackson, whose "Lord of
the Rings" is a work of breathtaking scope. I'll also resist predicting a
win for Golden Globe winner Robert Altman ("Gosford Park"), who might pull
an upset because of voter respect for his body of work, but probably
won't.
The Oscar will go to Ron Howard for "A Beautiful
Mind", not because it's the best directed film, but because Howard is
popular, and the Academy feels bad about overlooking him six years ago for
his masterful "Apollo 13". And he won the Director's Guild award, which is
a plus.
ACTOR
The favourite here is Denzel Washington, who hammed
it up strikingly as the rogue cop in "Training Day". Washington is Hollywood's
favourite black star, has never been honoured for a leading role, and people
have pretty much forgotten that he already won an Oscar for
"Glory".
Don't count Washington out, but he didn't win
the Screen Actors Guild award or the Golden Globe - those went to Russell
Crowe. Yes, Crowe won an Oscar last year, but I think Academy voters would
like to see him pull off a double. His curt dealings with the entertainment
press will have brought smiles to his colleagues' faces, his meteoric rise
since "L.A. Confidential" has impressed everyone interested in movies, his
performance in "A Beautiful Mind" is a good one, and the Academy loves portrayals
of disabilities.
My prediction: Russell Crowe, "A Beautiful
Mind"
ACTRESS
Nicole Kidman was the early favourite here, giving
two widely praised performances in "Moulin Rouge" and "The Others". Buzz
seems to have faded, which leads me to believe that perhaps my Best Picture
prediction is misguided. Oh well.
The other front-runners in this close race are
Sissy Spacek in "In the Bedroom" and Halle Berry in "Monster's Ball". Spacek
swept the critics' awards and took home the Golden Globe, but everyone who
sees "Monsters Ball" seems to get breathless when they attempt to describe
Berry's work. Berry was crowned by the SAG, plus in a year where three black
actors are up for Oscars, voters may feel the urge to award at least one
of them.
My prediction: Halle Berry, "Monster's
Ball"
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Everyone who saw "Sexy Beast" will vote for Ben
Kingsley, who perfectly captures the movie's balance of absurdity and terror,
and acts with such ferocity that we forget he's the man who played Gandhi
and Izhak Stern. But have enough voters seen it?
I'd love to be wrong, but I doubt it. The SAG
award went to a respected British actor in a big Hollywood hit, and so will
the Oscar.
My prediction: Ian McKellen, "Lord of the Rings:
The Fellowship of the Ring"
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The "Gosford Park" nominees could prove to be
spoilers, but don't count on it. In this category we have an actress who
is not only wonderful in "A Beautiful Mind" but should have been nominated
last year for "Requiem for a Dream", who has paid her dues by acting for
more than two thirds of her young life, who is brainy, beautiful, charming
and talented. She deserves to win, and will win.
My prediction: Jennifer Connelly, "A Beautiful
Mind"
ANIMATED FILM
Nine eligible films, and the Academy still got
it wrong. The groundbreaking "Final Fantasy" and "Waking Life", as well as
the comically inventive "Osmosis Jones", were shut out for "Monsters, Inc"
and "Jimmy Neutron"... leaving the front-runner, which may have received
a Best Picture nomination if it weren't for this new category, with no
competition at all.
My prediction: "Shrek"
Foreign language film:
"Amelie"
Original screenplay:
"Memento"
Adapted screenplay: "A Beautiful
Mind"
Original song: "Vanilla
Sky"
Original score: "Lord of the
Rings"
Film editing: "Memento"
Cinematography: "The Man Who Wasn't
There"
Art direction/set decoration: "Moulin
Rouge"
Costume design: "Moulin
Rouge"
Makeup: "Lord of the
Rings"
Sound: "Lord of the Rings"
Sound effects: "Pearl
Harbor"
Visual effects: "Lord of the
Rings"
The Oscarcast will be broadcast live on BBC2 from
2am on Monday morning. As always, I have coffee.
COPYRIGHT©
2002 Ian Waldron-Mantgani
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