full list of nominees
Predicting the 76th
Oscars
by
Ian Waldron-Mantgani, February 29, 2004
Forgive me while I plaster on a fake smile and
plough through this one more time…
…Which is to say, the Academy Awards are
the most exciting filmic ritual of the season! Vive Billy Crystal! And these
are my carefully thought-out expectations!
PICTURE
"Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King." It's a
no-brainer, and it deserves to win, so bring on the jokes about the one film
to rule them all.
DIRECTOR
Peter Jackson, "Lord of the Rings." Would be nasty to
deny him, no?
ACTOR
Sean Penn has perhaps been the favourite for too long, and it's been a while
since a Golden Globe winner won for this category. Johnny Depp should win
for "Pirates of the Carribean", and is the dark horse -- he won the Screen
Actors Guild award, and when SAG goes for a comedy performance, Oscar tends
to follow its lead. But I think the winner will be
Bill Murray for "Lost in
Translation". He's very popular, he gave a wonderful performance
against type, and voters will want to see his acceptance speech.
ACTRESS
Charlize Theron, "Monster." There's some buzz around
Diane Keaton in "Something's Gotta Give", but she got the nomination for
being Diane Keaton, and even that was a surprise -- it's an awful movie,
she doesn't do anything new, and her comical crying sounds are enough to
scar the brain. If there's an upset, it ain't coming from her.
SUPPORTING
ACTOR
Tim Robbins, "Mystic River." The smart money is on him,
and who am I to disagree? The Academy likes surprises in this category, but
on that score Djimon Honsou seems the only real competition; "In America"
looks to have been liked by all who saw it, and its nominations were an
interesting bolt from the blue. Still, I think the real surprise will come
in…
…SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Where Shohreh Aghdashloo will win for "House
of Sand and Fog". But maybe I'm in denial because I thought
Renee Zellweger was godawful in "Cold Mountain".
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"Lost in Translation." Sofia Coppola
will be a very young winner, and the screenplay had its flaws, but the movie
has a lot of fans, and this is usually the category that gets the consolation
prize.
ADAPTED
SCREENPLAY
"City of God" -- again with the consolation prize. If
there's any justice in the world, let anybody win but "Seabiscuit", let anybody
win but "Mystic River".
FOREIGN LANGUAGE
FILM
"The Barbarian Invasions." (Canada, Denys Arcand)
ANIMATED
FEATURE
"Finding Nemo."
DOCUMENTARY
FEATURE
"The Fog of War", which faces strong competition from
the equally famous and celebrated "Capturing the Friedmans".
ORIGINAL SCORE
"Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King", unless
the members feel bad for giving this to two LOTR movies, in which case they'll
go for "House of Sand and Fog". But I don't think their memories are that
long.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
"Girl with a Pearl Earring", if not "City of God", and
let's all join in prayer against ASC winner "Seabiscuit".
FILM EDITING
"Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King."
ART DIRECTION/SET
DECORATION
"Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King."
COSTUME DESIGN
It should be "Lord of the Rings", but it may be
"The Last Samurai" -- foreign
and period tends to get this every time; real-world foreign and period, rather
than LOTR, whose fantasy dress is about as foreign as can actually be
designed.
MAKEUP
"Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King." However,
I propose that if Johnny Depp comes to the ceremony in Jack Sparrow make-up,
the Academy should suspend all rules, tear up the envelope and give the Oscar
to "Pirates of the Carribean".
SOUND
"Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King."
SOUND EFFECTS
EDITING
"Master and Commander: The Far Side of the
World."
VISUAL EFFECTS
"Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King."
ORIGINAL SONG
Who cares? I suppose I'll go for "Lord of the
Rings".
Which, if I'm right, brings the total "Rings"
tally to 9. The Oscars will be shown on BBC1 tonight from 1am, when we will
all find out that I was, in fact, wrong.
COPYRIGHT©
2004 Ian Waldron-Mantgani
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