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Predicting the 72nd
Academy Award nominations
by
Ian Waldron-Mantgani, February 14, 2000
Every year pundits say that the Oscar race is
wide open; this time we really mean it. The precursor awards have sorted
out a couple of favourites, but none of them fit the traditional Academy
mould of safe, conventional, popular-in-Tinseltown entertainment. Some
unpredictability, then... should be fun!
BEST PICTURE
The only certain nominee for the top award is the disturbing comedy-drama
"American Beauty", because it has cleaned up at every other recent awards
ceremony. It will probably be joined by Michael Mann's "The Insider", the
story of how tobacco industry lies came to be exposed on American television;
"Being John Malkovich", Spike Jonze's hilariously perverse fantasy about
a puppeteer who finds a portal into actor Malkovich's brain; and "The Sixth
Sense", that wildly over-rated mega-hit with Bruce Willis and spooky
sound-effects.
Nobody seems to agree on what will fill the fifth
slot on the Best Picture roster. Buzz on "The Green Mile" has sort of faded,
but the film, which stars Tom Hanks as a Death Row prison guard, did get
nominations from the Directors Guild of America and the Screen Actors Guild.
That was enough to get "The Thin Red Line" a nomination last year, and it
could be enough here.
If not, then we might see "The Talented Mr Ripley",
Anthony Minghella's thriller follow-up to "The English Patient"; "The Hurricane",
a powerful true story about a middleweight boxer wrongly imprisoned for murder;
"Magnolia", another Los Angeles epic from the director of "Boogie Nights";
"The Straight Story", in which an old man travels across America on a lawnmower
to visit his brother; "The Cider House Rules", adapted from John Irving's
novel; "Topsy-Turvy", Mike Leigh's take on Gilbert and Sullivan; or "Toy
Story 2", which won the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture
Comedy.
DIRECTOR
Hey, the directing nominees come from pretty much the same pool as those
for Best Picture. The men with locks on nominations are Jonze for "Being
John Malkovich", Mann for "The Insider" and Sam Mendes for "American Beauty".
If "The Green Mile" is nominated for Picture, Frank Darabont will get a nod
for directing it; if not, he won't.
M Night Shyamalan, who directed "The Sixth Sense",
will not be on this list -- call it a hunch. Minghella could be mentioned
for Ripley, perhaps Stanley Kubrick, for his last film "Eyes Wide Shut",
or maybe Norman Jewison ("Hurricane"), David Lynch ("The Straight Story"),
Paul Thomas Anderson ("Magnolia"), Alexander Payne ("Election") or David
O Russell ("Three Kings").
ACTOR
The same five names have been popping up at pretty much all the precursor
awards, and I can fairly confidently predict that the five Best Leading Actor
nominees will be Jim Carrey ("Man on the Moon"), Russell Crowe ("The Insider"),
Richard Farnsworth ("The Straight Story"), Kevin Spacey ("American Beauty")
and Denzel Washington ("The Hurricane").
Farnsworth is the only one of these who wasn't
nominated by the Screen Actors Guild. If the Academy leave out him, or any
of my other predicted chaps, then he/they will be replaced by Hanks ("Green
Mile"), Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Flawless"), Matt Damon ("The Talented Mr
Ripley") or John Cusack ("Being John Malkovich").
ACTRESS
Since this year's awards will be dominated by neither careful nor edgy releases,
it is unclear whether the Reese Witherpoon will be nominated for the sharp
satire "Election", or Meryl Streep will snatch her space for the sentimental
drama "Music of the Heart". Witherspoon's domination of the critics' awards
might give her a slight edge, but either way, the other four Leading Actress
nominees will be as follows, unless there is some major surprise: Annette
Bening ("American Beauty"), Janet McTeer ("Tumbleweeds"), Julianne Moore
("The End of the Affair"), Hilary Swank ("Boys Don't Cry").
For supporting actor, look for such names as Michael
Caine, Tom Cruise, Michael Clark Duncan, Haley Joel Osment, Jude Law, Chris
Cooper and John Malkovich. In the running for supporting actress citations
could be Cameron Diaz, Catherine Keener, Chloe Sevigny, Samantha Morton or
Angelina Jolia; Julianne Moore could get another nomination, too, for her
turn in "Magnolia".
The technical awards will be dominated by "Star
Wars: Episode 1 - The Phantom Menace". It's still a mystery whether anything
will be offered to "The Blair Witch Project" or "Eyes Wide Shut". Will the
controversial "Fight Club" get an adapted screenplay nomination, as expected?
All will be revealed tomorrow, Tuesday 15th February, 5.30am USA Pacific
time.
COPYRIGHT©
2000 Ian Waldron-Mantgani
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